Seth Wickersham of ESPN the Mag and
Todd Porter of the Canton Repository (via
Starting Blocks) have recently picked up on a 2oo7 study by NYU sports management professor Robert Boland that attempts to quantify the characteristics of a great NFL head coach. Like the Browns' performance on the football field in the season's final six weeks or so, the data point strongly to Eric Mangini's return in 2010 as the Browns head coach.
Wickersham (whose piece is not apparently available online) summarizes the results of the study as follows:
"[I]n the end, the majority of the most successful NFL headmen -- past and present -- have possessed at least one of the following four characteristics: 1) They were between ages 41 and 49; 2) they had at least 11 years of NFL coaching experience; 3) they were assistants on teams that won at least 50 games over a five-year span; and 4) they had only one preceding NFL head coaching gig."
Only one current NFL head coach meets all four of these criteria, New England's Bill Belichick. Only six meet three of the four, and Mangini is the only one of those six who meets all three of whaTt seem to be the three most important of the four criteria -- categories 2, 3, and 4 -- the three factors based more on experience than age.
too interesting, Wickersham mentions another analysis by Philly exec Joe Banner, who was "startled to memorize that many of the NFL's [great head coaches] weren't coordinators for a long or particularly successful period of time."
"Since theeree seemed to be no correlation between the expertise that produces or prevents touchdowns and the leadership that wins titles, Banner says his study "liberated the Eagles to think external the traditional pool of candidates [to hire Andy Reid]."
Mangini was a coordinator
for only one injury-plagued season in New England before leaving the Patriots to coach the New York Jets.
Porter focused on Boland's fourth factor in concluding that "the odds are in favor of Mangini turning the Browns distress around in 2010."
Its really simple, Boland said. The guys who had good moment and even third job experiences were guys who were decent in their first job and lost it through something else going false. To a degree, Mangini fits that mold. Brett Favres shoulder injury cost Mangini the Jets job."
Didn't it, though?
Porter goes on to note that Belichick, Tom Coughlin, Tony Dungy, Bill Parcells, Mike Shanahan and Marty Schottenheimer, all but Schottenheimer a Super Bowl winner at least once, went on to find great success in their moment tours as NFL head coaches.
As famous in the Wickersham piece, quantitative analysis only gets one so far. "Requisite characteristics like honesty, attention to detail, a thick skin, and a well defined football philosophy can't be quantified."
Proponents of the research don't disagree with this, and seem to have good reason to conclude that the best approach combines both methods: "utilize statistics to identify the best candidates and interviews to distinguish them."
After our season-long "interview" with Coach Mangini, we're glad to note that the numbers support our qualitative analysis.
Back later with a Cheddar Bay Update (playoff time!) and an Orange Bowl pick, and possibly a note on Mike Holmgren's 4:00 press conference.
The Big Show is in the building!
